The geopolitical landscape of Europe has undergone a fundamental transformation over the past twelve months, signaling the definitive conclusion of the post-Cold War era and the long-held reliance on the United States as the primary guarantor of continental security. As political rhetoric shifts toward "strategic autonomy," European nations find themselves under unprecedented pressure to revitalize their defense capabilities. This shift is not merely ideological; it is being driven by the practical realities of a changing world order where the United States, particularly under the influence of the Trump administration’s critiques, has demanded that Europe assume a greater share of the collective security burden. Consequently, NATO members are now facing discussions regarding defense spending targets that could reach as high as 5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a significant escalation from the long-standing 2% benchmark.
Across the continent, governments and defense ministries are currently engaged in a rapid effort to redevelop industrial capacities that were systematically decommissioned during decades of relative stability. However, as the European Union and its member states prepare to deploy an estimated €600 billion toward rearmament, a critical challenge has emerged: the "execution gap." While capital is flowing toward the procurement of high-profile hardware—including fifth-generation fighter jets, main battle tanks, unmanned aerial vehicles, and vast quantities of munitions—the underlying logistical, administrative, and industrial frameworks remain tethered to legacy infrastructure. Experts warn that without a radical overhaul of the defense industrial base’s operational processes, this massive financial influx may fail to translate into actual combat readiness and strategic capability.
The Evolution of the European Defense Mandate
The current state of European defense is the result of a multi-decade chronology that began with the "peace dividend" of the 1990s. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, European nations significantly reduced their military outlays, transitioned to smaller professional armies, and allowed their defense industrial bases to consolidate or atrophy. This period of demilitarization was characterized by a focus on expeditionary warfare and counter-insurgency rather than large-scale territorial defense.
The trajectory began to shift in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea, which prompted the first serious discussions regarding a return to conventional deterrence. However, it was the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 that served as the ultimate catalyst for change. In the wake of this conflict, Germany announced its "Zeitenwende" (historic turning point), committing €100 billion to a special defense fund, while the European Commission launched the European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) to incentivize joint procurement and industrial readiness.
By early 2024, the focus had moved from mere procurement to the sustainability of the industrial base. In February, coinciding with the Munich Security Conference, Celonis—a global leader in process mining and intelligence—formally launched its Defense & Security initiative. This move was not a sudden pivot but a formalization of the company’s long-standing role in supporting the manufacturing and industrial sectors that are now being re-integrated into the defense ecosystem.
Identifying the Execution Gap in Modern Warfare
The primary obstacle to effective rearmament is the realization that superior hardware is no longer the sole determinant of military efficacy. In a contemporary conflict environment, industrial scale, the compression of production timelines, and the integration of sophisticated software are equally vital. The "execution gap" refers to the disconnect between the political will to spend and the industrial capacity to deliver.
Carsten Thoma, President of Celonis, notes that the issues currently plaguing the defense sector are remarkably similar to those found in large-scale commercial enterprises: fragmented data systems, siloed decision-making, and supply chains that lack end-to-end visibility. For decades, the defense sector operated in a low-volume, high-complexity environment. The sudden shift to high-volume production has exposed the fragility of these legacy processes.
The logistics of modern defense illustrate this crisis. It is currently reported that the delivery of essential spare parts or ammunition to front-line positions within Europe can take between six and nine months. These delays are often not the result of physical manufacturing shortages alone, but of a lack of unified governance and transparent logistical structures. When ammunition cannot reach the field due to administrative friction or inventory mismanagement, the billions spent on the initial procurement are effectively neutralized.
Data-Driven Solutions and Industrial Reactivation
To address these inefficiencies, the defense sector is increasingly looking toward process intelligence—a technology that allows organizations to visualize and optimize their internal operations in real-time. Celonis has begun applying its expertise to high-stakes defense projects, such as working with one of the world’s largest submarine manufacturers. The objective is to reduce the "time-to-water" for naval vessels by optimizing work order management, improving material allocation, and identifying bottlenecks within a vast network of sub-suppliers.
The potential for improvement is supported by data from the commercial sector. In a recent implementation for a global automotive manufacturer, process intelligence led to an 11% improvement in on-time delivery within just six months. By using AI-assisted matching of part numbers and stock-keeping units (SKUs) to real-time needs, the company was able to resolve chronic shortages and logistical failures. In a defense context, applying these same principles to the management of spare parts for armored vehicle fleets or aircraft could drastically increase the "mission-capable" rates of European militaries.
Furthermore, the reactivation of the defense industrial base requires bringing back companies that had exited the sector years ago. Many European firms possess the necessary patents, skills, and facilities, but they require a digital "nervous system" to reintegrate into the modern, high-speed defense supply chain.
The Mandate for Accountability and Transparency
The influx of €600 billion in public funds brings with it a heightened requirement for fiscal accountability. Historical precedents, such as the rapid distribution of funds during the COVID-19 pandemic, have demonstrated that massive spending in compressed timeframes is highly susceptible to waste, mismanagement, and fraud.
Ana Corina Sosa, Chief of Staff at Celonis, emphasizes that defense organizations will soon face rigorous audit requirements. Governments must be able to prove that every euro spent has contributed to a tangible increase in capability. This requires full transparency into operations: knowing exactly where data resides, understanding the origins of every component in the supply chain, and ensuring that contractors are meeting their obligations. Some defense suppliers are currently renegotiating contracts to reduce lead times by up to 55%. Without automated tracking and process transparency, verifying these improvements becomes nearly impossible.
Digital Sovereignty as a Strategic Necessity
A significant portion of the current debate surrounding European defense centers on "digital sovereignty." At the 2024 Munich Security Conference, it was highlighted that approximately 80% of Europe’s technology stack—including cloud infrastructure and critical software—originates from the United States and China. This dependency is now viewed as a strategic vulnerability.
European ministers and heads of state are increasingly prioritizing "sovereign solutions" that are trusted, unbiased, and capable of operating within a heterogeneous environment. Unlike the United States, which often utilizes a more unified technology landscape, the European defense environment is inherently fragmented across different nations and jurisdictions. This necessitates a technology stack that can federate data across different borders while maintaining strict compliance with national security laws and data residency requirements.
For European technology providers, this represents a significant opportunity. The demand is for "air-gapped" solutions that can operate in high-security environments without relying on external cloud providers. By offering containerized solutions that allow for observability and governance across multi-cloud or on-premise environments, European firms are positioning themselves as the necessary alternative to foreign-controlled platforms.
Broader Implications for the European Defense Industrial Strategy
The shift toward a more efficient, transparent, and sovereign defense sector has profound implications for the future of the European Union. The European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS), introduced by the European Commission, aims to ensure that by 2030, at least 40% of defense equipment is procured collaboratively, and at least 50% of the defense procurement budget is spent on European-made products.
Achieving these targets will require more than just policy mandates; it will require an industrial base that is digitally integrated. The ability to monitor and observe supply chains across different member states is essential for the success of joint procurement programs. If Europe can close the execution gap, it will not only enhance its own security but also strengthen its position as a global leader in high-tech manufacturing.
The ultimate goal, as articulated by industry leaders, is for technology to serve as a "counterweight"—providing the robustness and transparency needed to protect democratic values and safe societies. While the procurement of hardware will always be the most visible aspect of defense, the invisible layer of process intelligence and operational efficiency will likely be what determines Europe’s strategic success in the coming decade.
As the next two years unfold, the primary question will be whether the European defense sector is ready to embrace these digital transformations at the scale required. The commercial track record of process intelligence suggests that the capability exists; the challenge now lies in the political and military will to implement it before the next crisis arrives. The "execution gap" is the final hurdle in Europe’s journey toward true strategic autonomy, and closing it is no longer optional—it is a matter of continental survival.